Law and Politics
by Michael Gorman - October 28, 2008 1:24pm
We are now 7 days away from the election on November 4th. Yesterday we touched upon the safe Senate seats, and then the races in Virginia, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Maine and Louisiana. Today we’re going to talk about the races in Texas, Colorado, Alaska, Oregon and Georgia.
Texas Senate Race:
Incumbent John Cornyn (R) v. Rick Noriega (D)
I don’t think it is more possible to highlight how much the atmosphere in America has changed, than the fact that this seat is not a dead solid Republican lock. While Cornyn should win here, and probably wins 95% of the time even in this atmosphere, the fact that a Senate seat in Texas, has any drama at all in the race is amazing.
Cornyn is a one term incumbent. He is a former Texas Attorney General, and his name has been floated in the past as a possible Supreme Court Justice. Cornyn is very conservative, which fits his current state quite nicely. Cornyn’s problem is his approval rating, which sits at around 50%. This has allowed a credible challenge to be brought by Rick Noriega.
Rick Noriega has been a member of the U.S. House since 1998. Noriega is a veteran, having served in Afghanistan after 9/11. Noriega is extremely popular in his district, but has been considerably out spent in this Senate election.
The polls show Cornyn with a lead of 6-15 points. Unfortunately the number of voters polled have been small numbers, leading to wildly erratic numbers. I think this race is a bit closer then people think, but ultimately I think Cornyn holds on and wins by 5 points.
Colorado Senate Race: This seat is currently held by retiring Senator Wayne Allard-R
Mark Udall (D) v. Bob Schaffer (R)
Wayne Allard had vowed to only serve two terms, and in conduct unbecoming a politician, actually lived up to his work. Unfortunately for the Republican party, this seems to be leading to a Democratic steal of the State.
Mark Udall has been a member of the U.S. House since 1999. His cousin Tom Udall is running for Senate in New Mexico, and another cousin, Gordon Smith is the current Republican Senator of Oregon. Udall is popular in the State, and has become known for working with both parties on legislation Udall voted twice against the recent bailout package.
Bob Schaffer was a U.S. House member from 1997 through 2003, leaving office in 03 to run for Senate in 2004. Schaffer lost in the primary to Bad Generic Beer person Pete Coors. Schaffer has a fairly standard Republican record, with nothing standing out as far right or moderate.
Polls show Udall with a strong 7-13 point lead. Schaffer was already unsuccessful in the primary of 04, and the stink of that loss may not have faded away just yet. Udall takes it by 10 points, leading to the third gain for the Democrats.
Alaska
Incumbent Ted Stevens (R) V. Mark Begich (D)
This was shaping up to be an incredibly interesting race. Stevens the long time Senator and Pork king from Alaska, against the extremely popular Mayor of Anchorage. The polls were close, as Begich was nursing a microscopically small lead….and then.
Stevens who was on trial for corruption charges, was convicted on all counts. Game over.
I can not see a scenario where Stevens pulls this out now. Before the conviction Begich had a lead of 2-3 points, well within the margin of error. Now, clearly in a normal year, Stevens would win. In fact, Begich’s slight lead is likely directly due to the fact that Stevens was on trial. Now that he’s been convicted, it’s likely that many Stevens supporters simply won’t be checking off his name on the ballot, and may simply just not cast a vote in the Senate election. In a year where Alaska’s Sarah Palin is on the ballot as the VP Republican candidate, Ted Stevens is going to go down in defeat by 10 points. This is a shock. It’s also the 4th Democrat pick up.
Oregon
Incumbent Gordon Smith (R) v. Jeff Merkley (D)
Gordon Smith, a member of the ubiquitous Udall family, is the moderate Republican Incumbent here. Smith has been the Senator since 1997, and is running for his third term. Smith is moderate in the sense he has supported cell stem research, has supported gay rights, and has reached across the aisle to work on important legislation in the past. Smith’s problem has to do with the State of Oregon. Oregon has become increasingly liberal over the years, and Smith is currently one of only two Republicans in Oregon’s state delegation. This has opened the door for Jeff Merkley.
Merkley is the Speaker of the House in the Oregon State legislature. Merkley is a garden variety liberal Democrat. His problem in this race has been a higher than normal unfavorable rating, which in all probability comes from his exposure as the Speaker of the House in Oregon. Locally, think about how disliked Speakers such as Finneran was, and Dimasi is here in Massachusetts. However, Oregon has become overwhelmingly Democratic, and the state has been supporting Obama strongly.
This is a VERY close race. Smith is behind, and has shown some desperation, such as trying to tie himself into Obama in advertisements. I don’t think he deserves to lose his seat. Nevertheless polls show Merkley with a lead between 3-7 points. Smith is liked, Merkley has some negatives, but I feel that the atmosphere of the state, along with Obama’s support in Oregon adds up to a Merkley victory by 3 points, and the 5th Democrat pick up.
Georgia
Incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) v. Jim Martin (D)
Saxby Chambliss is an asshole. In 2002, Chambliss ran against Incumbent Max Cleland. Max Cleland was a Vietnam Veteran, who also had three of his limbs amputated due to wounds suffered in war. Chambliss ran a campaign, and advertisements, suggesting that Cleland was not committed to homeland security, and the advertisements used images of Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden next to Cleland. By the way, during Vietnam, Chambliss did not serve, even though he was of age. He also accepted gifts from Jack Abramoff. Basically Chambliss is a terrible, terrible human being, and nothing would delight me more than to see Chambliss lose.
Jim Martin (not the former Faith No More guitarist), served 18 years in the Georgia legislature. He was a losing nominee for Lt. Governor in Georgia back in 06. Like Max Cleland, Jim Martin is also a decorated Vietnam Veteran.
Chambliss started out with a large lead, but Martin has steadily picked away at the lead. Chambliss currently leads between 2-4 points. A quirk in Georgia’s law states that if neither candidate gets over 50% of the vote, a runoff is held. Because there are other candidates from minor parties involved, this possibility looms in the background. Chambliss is truly a vile human being, and I predict that Martin pulls out a 1 point victory over Chambliss. However, it will not be enough to avoid a runoff. This seat will be decided at a later date.
More Tomorrow!